Saturday, July 7, 2012

We’ve Seen Climate Change Coming. We Need to Act Now.


In 1896 Swedish Scientist, Svante Arrhenius, predicted carbon dioxide emissions from human activity would increase global temperatures via the green house effect. He thought it would take 3000 years to double the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting in an average global temperature increase of 5 to 6 degrees Celsius.  (Too bad it will take less than 150 years instead of 3,000.)

In 1958, Charles David Keeling began meticulous recoding of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.  His work, now continued by others, is the longest continuous record of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the world and shows carbon dioxide increasing in relation to human activity.  In 1963, the National Science Foundation issued a warning regarding the green house effect and cited Keeling’s research. 

With initial warnings sounded over 100 years ago, global warming is far from a new idea, and in 2012 it doesn’t take scientific genius to see first hand what Arrhenius and Keeling had predicted.  In spite of the advanced warning, human-kind is paralyzed in the face of climate change.  We’re in a climate train wreck of our own making, and we’re still shoveling coal on the fire, but we should be applying the breaks on green house gases. 

Compared to the coming climate crisis, the financial and economic crisis that started in 2008 will look like a pic nic.  The climate crisis and related extreme weather will deliver direct impacts to food supply, water supply, land and territory, loss of life and property.  In addition to the suffering from those direct impacts, it’s safe to say that economies dealing with all those problems won’t be providing more for future generations.

The climate train wreck is inevitable, and some would say we’re already seeing extreme weather that is the result of climate change.  In spite of the natural processes that remove it from the atmosphere, carbon dioxide emitted today will have an effect on the climate for a hundred or more years.  The increasing global temperatures are thawing perma-frost which in turn releases more green house gas.  Ice and snow melt already brought on by green house effect means heat from the sun is absorbed more, rather than reflected (i.e., the albedo effect). The world population is on track to grow from 7 billion until it tops out at 10 billion while per capita carbon emissions are increasing.

Although huge impacts of climate change are unavoidable, we still have the chance to make it worse or reduce the impact.  The old sayings about a “stitch in time” and “he who hesitates” hold true in this case: the longer we wait to act, the faster we’ll be accelerating into the carbon hole of climate change.  In the United States, we need action on all levels in order to get to the general goal of reducing per capita carbon emissions to 1/7 of current (that’s right, reduce by 7/8).  Here’s what to do:
·      Individual conservation.  Reduce your carbon footprint by conserving electricity, heat, and fuel.  Most people know what to do, but it’s a matter of actually doing *all* of it
·      Use greener energy.  Get the certified green alternative from your electricity provider.  Make your next car (if you need to have one) electric.
·      Become a social change agent.  Help your friends, family, and community be aware of climate change, and help them know what they can do.
·      Community activism.  Join and participate in an organization such as 350.org or betterfuture.org.
·      Political action.  Know the voting records of your government representatives (e.g., www.treehugger.com), let them know how you feel, and vote to put the people in office who will take action to slow climate change.

Sunday, July 1, 2012

E-tailers Will Turn to Amazon Alternatives


Amazon’s 85 million unique visitors a month produce huge sales increases for e-tailers who participate in Amazon’s MarketPlace, but those e-tailers also suffer crippling competitive set backs at Amazon’s hands.  The fees and strategic costs of doing business with Amazon present an opportunity for another market leader to offer an un-Amazon model.

Amazon’s charges to MarketPlace participants range between 6% and 15% of sales, and for larger sellers, may also include a monthly membership fee.  Many e-tailers would be thrilled with that, if that were the only price to pay to obtain the 50% average increase in sales experienced by MarketPlace participants.  The bigger price to pay is that Amazon takes the best ideas from the MarketPlace and enters into direct competition with the e-tailers.  With Amazon charging up to 15% and controlling the placement of products on the site, many e-tailers who came to MarketPlace to grow their business instead struggle to maintain sales volume.

eBay’s shopping.com is an advertising platform that serves as an un-Amazon alternative to MarketPlace.  If ebay.com resembles a sophisticated flea market, shopping.com resembles an on-line shopping mall.   With 100 million unique visitors per month, shopping.com offers the traffic that e-tailers need to boost sales. Shopping.com offers a straight-forward cost-per-click pricing model and the advantage that the aggregator doesn’t compete with the e-tailers who offer their products via the site.  E-tailers gain additional advantage at shopping.com, because it feeds traffic into the e-tailers’ own on-line stores giving the e-tailer control over their own image.

The history of the brick and mortar department store offers parallels to Amazon’s MarketPlace.  Department stores have always had to balance between offering designer labels that attract fashion conscious shoppers with the value and margin control of equivalent products under the in-house label. Much energy has always been expended in managing this difficult relationship.  Amazon is replicating the challenges of that relationship.   Much as Levis started The Gap to go around department stores for direct access to customers in shopping malls, e-tailers will gain direct access to online shoppers via alternative aggregation model such as shopping.com.  

As the on-line shopping world flattens more and more, e-tailers will turn to Amazon less-and-less.    They will discover a wider range of options.  They will strengthen their own stores and will turn to alternatives such as shopping.com.

Information Sources: Wall Street Journal, 6/27/2012, “Competing with Amazon on Amazon” by Greg Bensinger, www.ebay.com,  www.shopping.com.