Sunday, October 14, 2012

United States Citizens Need to Drive a Sensible Energy Policy that Takes Externalities into Account


In economics, an externality is a cost or a benefit that accrues to a party who did not participate in a transaction.   The disposal of carbon into the atmosphere when a motorist drives a car is one example of an externality.  The motorist paid the filling station for the gasoline to power the car, but the rest of society bears the cost of the carbon exhausted into the atmosphere.  When coal or other fossil fuel is burned to produce electricity, the electric company and consumers of that electricity are primary participants in the transaction, but those who use a certified green source of electricity or generate their own electricity are burdened with the externality. Consumers who use the fossil-fuel-generated electricity sparingly, are also unfairly burdened with a coal externality.  Many electricity consumers who have no choice also experience the externality of the environmental impacts of fossil-fuel-generated power, which was not a part of their transaction with the electric company.  

On October 8, 2012, the Wall Street Journal reported a forecast that the cost of one mega-watt hour of photovoltaic for new generation capacity in 2017 will be $152.70 (page R2).  At that price, photovoltaic looks ~1.5 times more expensive than coal and ~2.5 times more expensive that natural gas.   But this comparison doesn’t take into account the externality associated with coal and natural gas, which among other things, produce green house gases that pose a dire threat to the planet.  The cost-benefit comparison among energy sources would look different if the externalities were taken into account. 

Externalities are often difficult to quantify, and parties impacted by externalities often don’t have rights to claim compensation for costs they bear.  In the absence of specific laws or regulations, parties impacted by externalities are left with tort to claim compensation for costs they bear as the result of someone else’s transaction or activity.  Tort law is a slow, laborious, and complicated process.   For example imagine how much time and effort will be required for farmers and insurance companies who suffered losses due to human-caused climate change in the draught of 2012 to gain consideration for their losses through the courts. 

There is no scientific doubt that climate change is an externality that is real and is caused by human activity.  Insurance companies now corroborate the scientists (See USA Today 10 October 2012, Page 1, "Weather Disasters Target North America").  Although it threatens the financial interests of fossil fuel companies, energy policy should be informed not only by the transaction costs of fossil fuels, but also by the externalities that have been confirmed by science and the insurance industry.

The energy policy of the United States and many other countries would be different if externalities were accurately accounted for in the planning.  The United States energy policy might look more like that of Germany or China.  Germany produces more solar electricity than any other country, and is capable of producing 30 gigawatts or nearly half of its electricity needs through solar power.  China produces more wind energy than any other country and is capable of producing 63 gigawatts. 

Germany and China are investing in solar and wind energy even though the direct transaction costs associated with these energy sources are higher than alternatives.  They’re doing it because they understand the externalities (and because, unlike fossil fuels, these sources will produce energy for centuries).  If we in the United States would heed economics as a unified nation, and take into account the externalities associated with energy from fossil fuels, we’d be the leading producers of solar and wind power.

The reason the United States is not the leading producer of solar and wind energy is not because we don’t understand economics – we do.  The reason the United States is not the leading producer of solar and wind energy is not because we don’t have sufficient sun or wind resources – we have superior resources.   The reason the United States is not the leading producer of solar and wind energy is not because we don’t understand the technology – we are the source of key technologies that Germany and China are harnessing. 

The reason the United States is not the leading producer of solar and wind energy is because the fossil fuel industry has, through campaign contributions and lobbying, achieved strategic influence over the government.  It is time for citizens of the United States to regain control, so that we can make the sound economic decisions that Germany and China have made.  It is time for citizens of the United States to regain control, so that we can make the sound energy policy decisions that are right for the nation, not the decisions that are right for the fossil fuel industry but wrong for everyone else.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Fossil-Fuel Crash and Fiduciary Responsibility: Head for the Exit



There was dot-com crash.  Then there was housing crash.  Now we can see fossil-fuel crash on the horizon.  Which investors will suffer biggest losses in the fossil-fuel crash? 

Fossil-fuel crash is the coming correction in valuation of fossil fuel assets.  Fossil fuel assets, held by coal companies, petroleum companies, governments, and their investors are valued based on the assumption that those assets will be sold for consumption to produce energy.  Scientific consensus and casual observation indicates that using those fossil fuels to produce energy as in the past will have dire consequences due to global warming.  Fossil-fuel crash is the result of the realization that curtailing carbon emission to mitigate global warming means fossil fuel assets are currently over-valued.  With the strengthening of forces to curtail carbon emissions, fossil fuel assets are likely grossly overvalued.  

Building on scientific consensus and casual observation about the need to manage climate change, these forces are driving the reduction in carbon emissions:
  • Political – Activism on the part of political constituencies working to stop climate change and protect the environment
  • Legal – Legal proceedings to collect compensation from the fossil fuel industry for past damages caused by fossil fuels and prevent future damages
  • Social – Growing social acceptance and pressure to move to lifestyles with reduced dependence on fossil fuels
  • Competition – Improvements in the economic performance of non-fossil-fuel sources of energy
  • Conservation – Improved efficiencies and reduced consumption will have a dampening effect on growth in demand for energy

The valuation of fossil fuel assets is based on a revenue stream that stretches from now to the end of the carbon-energy-era.   With the acceleration of measures to curtail carbon emissions, expectations for that revenue stream should be revised in two ways.  First, the revenue stream should be revised downward.  Second, the end of the revenue stream should be revised to occur sooner.  Both of these revisions will have the effect of reducing the value of fossil fuel assets.

Investment boards and investment managers have a responsibility to protect and grow portfolios.  Holdings in those portfolios that are valued based on fossil fuel related revenue are due for a correction.  Those with responsibility to protect investment portfolios have a duty to assess the risk, and manage portfolio strategy accordingly.  

Since fossil fuels are a finite resource, at some point fossil-fuel-based assets will cease to be a part of investment portfolios.  For those with investment responsibility, the question is not whether to exit, but when to exit investments in fossil fuels.  In the past, new fossil fuel discoveries have driven increased valuations, but management of carbon emissions means that more fossil fuel discoveries no longer means a bigger or longer revenue stream.   Rather than being constrained by supply of fossil fuels, revenue will increasingly be constrained by political, legal, social, competitive, and conservation forces driving reduced carbon emissions.  The forces to curtail carbon emissions are gaining momentum, and will gain more momentum as global warming progresses.
 
On the one hand, the forces dragging fossil fuel valuations are growing in strength.  On the other hand, the global reserves of fossil fuel are finite.    It’s unclear which investors will suffer greatest losses in the fossil fuel crash, but the ones to the exit first have least to worry about.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

What Happened at Climate Action Now?


Today in Amherst Massachusetts, leaders from environmental groups, government, universities, churches, and synagogues met for Climate Action Now.  The event was organized in a six-week time frame to coincide with Friday’s speech and rally in Amherst featuring Bill McKibben, founder of 350.org.  The event is an accelerator for the growing momentum of the movement to manage climate change.  After welcome by Vick Kemper, Pastor of First Congregational Church in Amherst, the 300-plus participants broke into working groups and plotted their plans to address climate change on these fronts:
-           Institutional divestiture in coal, oil, and gas industries
-           Legislative action to end subsidies to coal, oil, and gas industries
-           Organizational action and alignment with 350.org and 350MA.org
-           Alternatives to nuclear in the post-carbon-energy future
-           Community-based renewable energy
-           Technology for removing carbon from the atmosphere

One of the objectives of the conference was to create a model for mobilizing and organizing.  The model can now be repeated on a region-by-region basis to turn popular frustration with inaction on climate change into political and economic force.  The Climate Action Now conference’s leadership experience has come from established public action organizations:
-           350.org
-           Alliance for Peace and Justice
-           Connecticut River Valley Earth First!
-           MoveOn Councils of Western Massachusetts
-           Sierra Club of Massachusetts
-           Traprock Center for Peace and Justice
-           Campaign for Community Solar

The event closed with an address by Margaret Bullitt-Jones, Priest Associate at Grace Episcopal Church, Amherst, Massachusetts.

Advanced coverage of the event was carried by the Daily Hampshire Gazette.  

Saturday, August 11, 2012

The Tide is Turning Against Climate Denying Luddites; Sustainability Movement Gaining Momentum



Some time ago, an acquaintance of mine said he was satisfied to let the next generation solve the puzzle of global warming.  For the time being, he said he'd enjoy the warmer weather.  In light of now overwhelming scientific opinion and social sensibilities those statements now seem irresponsible and Luddite.  

As for me, I plan to work with a growing movement toward global sustainability now.  It's a problem that doesn't get easier to solve.  Procrastinating compounds the challenge, and may make the solution impossible.  I meet and read about more and more people who feel the way I do.  There is increasing social pressure and opportunity to not kick the can down the road to the next generation. The situation is dire, but the tide is turning toward understanding that we need to act.

Here are few encouraging pieces of news that make me feel the tide is turning.  They are encouraging because they force the conclusion that action is required and that we are increasingly committing to action:

- NASA Scientist, Jim Hansen, has completed a study showing that climate change is the cause of increases in extreme weather.  http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/05/us/climate-change/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

- Outspoken climate change skeptic, Richard Muller at University of Berkley, has declared himself converted, indicating climate change is settled science that deserves government action.   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqPuKxXUCPY

- The US Federal Appeals Court confirms the Environmental Protection Agency has authority and responsibility to regulate carbon emissions http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/27/science/earth/epa-emissions-rules-backed-by-court.html



Other encouragement is more subtle:

- The issue of subsidies to the oil and gas industry is now part of the political conversation leading up to  elections in November.  (e.g., television advertisements and platform statements by candidate for U.S. Senate Elizabeth Warren)

- Images of wind turbines have become common in advertising indicating an acknowledgement that the public responds favorably to green-minded companies 

- Conservation efforts, such as mandated fuel efficiency improvements and bicycle infrastructure, are gain gaining mass acceptance.

- Lifestyle preferences are shifting toward denser housing that reduces carbon footprints (e.g., this Houston survey http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Mass-transit-gains-momentum-in-latest-Houston-3500530.php )


There is much hard work and difficult change ahead, but with this type of news we can take it on knowing that the balance of power is shifting.  Reinforcements to the cause of sustainability are arriving continuously and more are on the way. 




Saturday, July 7, 2012

We’ve Seen Climate Change Coming. We Need to Act Now.


In 1896 Swedish Scientist, Svante Arrhenius, predicted carbon dioxide emissions from human activity would increase global temperatures via the green house effect. He thought it would take 3000 years to double the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting in an average global temperature increase of 5 to 6 degrees Celsius.  (Too bad it will take less than 150 years instead of 3,000.)

In 1958, Charles David Keeling began meticulous recoding of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.  His work, now continued by others, is the longest continuous record of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the world and shows carbon dioxide increasing in relation to human activity.  In 1963, the National Science Foundation issued a warning regarding the green house effect and cited Keeling’s research. 

With initial warnings sounded over 100 years ago, global warming is far from a new idea, and in 2012 it doesn’t take scientific genius to see first hand what Arrhenius and Keeling had predicted.  In spite of the advanced warning, human-kind is paralyzed in the face of climate change.  We’re in a climate train wreck of our own making, and we’re still shoveling coal on the fire, but we should be applying the breaks on green house gases. 

Compared to the coming climate crisis, the financial and economic crisis that started in 2008 will look like a pic nic.  The climate crisis and related extreme weather will deliver direct impacts to food supply, water supply, land and territory, loss of life and property.  In addition to the suffering from those direct impacts, it’s safe to say that economies dealing with all those problems won’t be providing more for future generations.

The climate train wreck is inevitable, and some would say we’re already seeing extreme weather that is the result of climate change.  In spite of the natural processes that remove it from the atmosphere, carbon dioxide emitted today will have an effect on the climate for a hundred or more years.  The increasing global temperatures are thawing perma-frost which in turn releases more green house gas.  Ice and snow melt already brought on by green house effect means heat from the sun is absorbed more, rather than reflected (i.e., the albedo effect). The world population is on track to grow from 7 billion until it tops out at 10 billion while per capita carbon emissions are increasing.

Although huge impacts of climate change are unavoidable, we still have the chance to make it worse or reduce the impact.  The old sayings about a “stitch in time” and “he who hesitates” hold true in this case: the longer we wait to act, the faster we’ll be accelerating into the carbon hole of climate change.  In the United States, we need action on all levels in order to get to the general goal of reducing per capita carbon emissions to 1/7 of current (that’s right, reduce by 7/8).  Here’s what to do:
·      Individual conservation.  Reduce your carbon footprint by conserving electricity, heat, and fuel.  Most people know what to do, but it’s a matter of actually doing *all* of it
·      Use greener energy.  Get the certified green alternative from your electricity provider.  Make your next car (if you need to have one) electric.
·      Become a social change agent.  Help your friends, family, and community be aware of climate change, and help them know what they can do.
·      Community activism.  Join and participate in an organization such as 350.org or betterfuture.org.
·      Political action.  Know the voting records of your government representatives (e.g., www.treehugger.com), let them know how you feel, and vote to put the people in office who will take action to slow climate change.

Sunday, July 1, 2012

E-tailers Will Turn to Amazon Alternatives


Amazon’s 85 million unique visitors a month produce huge sales increases for e-tailers who participate in Amazon’s MarketPlace, but those e-tailers also suffer crippling competitive set backs at Amazon’s hands.  The fees and strategic costs of doing business with Amazon present an opportunity for another market leader to offer an un-Amazon model.

Amazon’s charges to MarketPlace participants range between 6% and 15% of sales, and for larger sellers, may also include a monthly membership fee.  Many e-tailers would be thrilled with that, if that were the only price to pay to obtain the 50% average increase in sales experienced by MarketPlace participants.  The bigger price to pay is that Amazon takes the best ideas from the MarketPlace and enters into direct competition with the e-tailers.  With Amazon charging up to 15% and controlling the placement of products on the site, many e-tailers who came to MarketPlace to grow their business instead struggle to maintain sales volume.

eBay’s shopping.com is an advertising platform that serves as an un-Amazon alternative to MarketPlace.  If ebay.com resembles a sophisticated flea market, shopping.com resembles an on-line shopping mall.   With 100 million unique visitors per month, shopping.com offers the traffic that e-tailers need to boost sales. Shopping.com offers a straight-forward cost-per-click pricing model and the advantage that the aggregator doesn’t compete with the e-tailers who offer their products via the site.  E-tailers gain additional advantage at shopping.com, because it feeds traffic into the e-tailers’ own on-line stores giving the e-tailer control over their own image.

The history of the brick and mortar department store offers parallels to Amazon’s MarketPlace.  Department stores have always had to balance between offering designer labels that attract fashion conscious shoppers with the value and margin control of equivalent products under the in-house label. Much energy has always been expended in managing this difficult relationship.  Amazon is replicating the challenges of that relationship.   Much as Levis started The Gap to go around department stores for direct access to customers in shopping malls, e-tailers will gain direct access to online shoppers via alternative aggregation model such as shopping.com.  

As the on-line shopping world flattens more and more, e-tailers will turn to Amazon less-and-less.    They will discover a wider range of options.  They will strengthen their own stores and will turn to alternatives such as shopping.com.

Information Sources: Wall Street Journal, 6/27/2012, “Competing with Amazon on Amazon” by Greg Bensinger, www.ebay.com,  www.shopping.com.